Planning & Forecasting
Tips and Common Mistakes
by Holli Bohren, CFA, CPA
“In planning for
battle, I have found that
plans are useless, but
planning is indispensible.”
--Dwight Eisenhower
Planning is imperative for
any situation, but financial
planning requires a certain
fluidity and finesse.
Without solid preparation,
lack of direction will cause
a manageable situation to
devolve into loss and
crisis. What good planning
consists of is simple: lucid
communication, peer
engagement and consistent
methodology.

Successful plans must
communicate clearly and
concisely to investors and
management, while
simultaneously acting as a
check on instinct and
guesswork. A good plan must
earn the buy-in of
management by engaging them
in the initial planning
process, spurring debate and
questions about reasonable
resources. A strong plan
includes a clear system of
accountability and an
expenditure approval process
that is supported by the
CEO.

Process Overview,
Buy-in, and Accountability
For initial preparation,
creating a reasonable
timeline for the planning
process (including revisions
and approvals) is vital.
When this timeline is
complete, the CEO needs to
make people strictly adhere
to what is agreed upon.
After doing this, schedule
time for a full review of
all areas of the budget and
financial forecast by senior
management. In this
discussion, individual
salaries can be excluded,
and executives need to make
the case for their resource
needs. For this purpose, an
offsite meeting can be
useful.

Common Mistakes:
A common scenario: the CEO
verbally approves
expenditures that are
outside the plan. Executives
use such approval to make an
end-run around the plan.
Plans may change, but
expenditures outside the
plan have to be looked at in
the context of the whole
plan. Following the process
is crucial.
Another simple mistake is
delivering seat-of-the-pants
projections in any context
regardless of the assurances
by the recipient. Today they
understand you are “just
ball parking” or looking at
a “what-if” scenario. Six
months from now they’ll
think your projections were
actual promises to deliver
those numbers. CEOs get
bullied by the Board, and
CFOs get bullied by the CEO.
It is the job of the CFO to
refuse to present
unsubstantiated numbers.

Get the Big Picture
To obtain a reasonable idea
of the “big picture” one
must orient themselves and
their team. You must bring
the management team’s
expertise to the forefront
in considering industry
outlook (economics,
technological and legal or
regulatory issues).
Questions should be asked:
What does your customer base
or potential customer base
look like? What will they be
buying and when?

One should take a look at
competition, current
pricing, and expected forces
for price degradation and/or
price support. Gross margins
are a strong indicator of
where to invest in the
business and should be
analyzed. Understanding of
how costs vary with revenues
and which expenses will be
cut if revenues do not
materialize according to
plan is critical. One should
benchmark the plan against
public market companies with
a similar business model.
Constantly looking at
ratios, margins, and
financial statement
presentation will aid in
attaining the larger
objective behind the plan.

Common Mistakes:
Both cash flows and
operating budgets must be
fully understood in an
integrated model.
Forecasting P&L without
supporting balance sheet and
cash flow statement is a
blunder that should not be
made.

When the Big Picture
Changes – Putting the
Process to Work
Always leverage your work.
This includes instituting a
monthly process to update
the forecast and review the
prior month’s
budget-to-actual with each
executive. Incorporate key
cost and revenue drivers
into a management dashboard
that is reviewed weekly.

Common Mistakes:
Do not delay the delivery of
bad news. Always think
carefully about informing
the Board early when
unfavorable variances to the
plan seem likely to emerge.
This builds trust and
credibility, and allows the
potential benefit of ideas
or assistance from Board
members. Do not pin your
hopes on a breakout Q4, or
one or two big deals.

TacticaI
Constantly plan for unknowns
and contingencies. One
should always have a Plan B
and make sure that the
backup plan is consistent
with the chart of accounts
to allow budget-to-actual
comparisons. To ensure good
housekeeping, always keep a
file copy of each final
presentation along with
copies of all supporting
detail for future reference.
Knowing what who said to
whom, when and why is key.
Finally, consider
outsourcing non-key revenue
or cost driver positions.

Always consider the
audience. Tailor your
presentation accordingly:
avoid acronyms and jargon,
state key assumptions
clearly and use charts and
visuals whenever possible.
When it comes to divulging
pertinent information, share
the relevant portion of the
budget with all managers to
the lowest accountability
level. Make sure the sum of
the sales force targets
exceed the plan. Institute a
monthly meeting with each
executive to review the
forecast and the prior
month’s budget-to-actual
results. Obtain explanations
you will need for your
variance analysis for the
CEO and Board when called on
to summarize the findings.

After doing this, ensure the
accounting side of the house
and the planning side work
in concert. By seeing the
forecast, accounting can
accrue and plan cash better.
Financial planning and
analysis staff will need
accounting’s help to do a
proper variance analysis and
to forecast accruals and
cash balances. Together,
they should produce the
budget-to-actual reports
that the executives review
each month with the CFO or
his/her lieutenant.

For the purchasing process,
always have a handle on the
PO process. Also, understand
where your forecasting was
weak and why, and take the
time to apply a little
historical analysis to
improve the next forecast.
This can be as simple as
looking at lead times, new
customer set-up times, or
volume estimates.

Common Mistakes:
Do not present an overly
conservative plan to
investors-always recognize
the 50% cuts they will make.
Conversely, presenting
explosive revenue growth at
some unrealistically near
term point in the future is
unprofessional and
impractical.

If it is February and the
sales force does not have a
comp plan, think on your
feet. Do not roll forward
unused funds without
questioning, take a step
back and look at what would
be the appropriate
expenditure of the funds.
Always be able to answer the
question, “How much do I
have left in x account?” Do
not finance blindly and
accept sales forecasts from
the sales team without
applying historical analysis
to determine their likely
accuracy. “It was the VP of
Sales' responsibility” is a
good answer for the Board if
you want to find yourself
looking for a new job.
Lastly, budget for
promotions, merit increases,
and bonuses.

Conclusion
Financial planning and
forecasting is one of the
most crucial tasks for a
management team to ensure
transparency and the long
term viability of the
company. Put good habits
into place early and often
and your company will run
like a well-oiled machine.

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